Summary: There’s a slim chance that no major disruptions happen in 2024 inversely, there’s a high chance that at least one major thing will happen that will cause significant disruptions — all of which end in economic turmoil, either by impacting the price of energy, derailing the supply chain or triggering foolish responses by government which then exacerbates every problem. The government’s only solution for problems is to print more money thereby accelerating the destruction of the dollar and the demise of America’s superpower status.
Event Probability
- 100% Devaluation of the dollar, increase inflation and monetary expansion.
- 90% War in the Middle East expands to include the USA in kinetic operations.
- 80% The democrats are going all out to cancel Trump. No matter who is elected POTUS in November, half the country will feel like the result is not legitimate and civil unrest and/or chaos may ensue.
- 75% Significant commercial real estate debt collapse, bank failures, economic havoc.
- 70% Homeland Insecurity: MILLIONS of fighting age males have invaded America from the South and the idiots in government have shipped them all over the country. We’re screwed when the terrorists in that mix are activated.
- 70% Physical infrastructure/grid attacks.
- 60% Food supply terrorism/Intentional disruptions
- 50% Wildland fire terrorism
- 25% Intentional contamination of water supplies
- 10% Hamas style rampage, vehicle crowd attacks or other low-tech high visibility attacks.
- 60% Crippling Cyber Attack: Russia, Iran, China and North Korea are all capable of seriously wrecking our way of life with cyber attacks, and they are hard to attribute.
- 60% Disruption of supply chain and logistics.
- 50% Disruption of power grid.
- 40% Disruption of water utilities.
- 60% China takes over Taiwan in late 2024 or early 2025 if our country is in turmoil. Even if we just puff up and complain, it may cause massive disruptions. If we go to war, it’s TEOLAWKI.
- 5+% hit to GDP if semiconductor imports from Taiwan stop.
- Unrestricted warfare by the Chinese will include cyber and economic tactics to disrupt our country and crash the dollar.
- 55% War in Ukraine escalates and NATO gets sucked into direct war with Russia.
- 50% chance of 30% devaluation of the US dollar as indicated by $140/barrel oil. $2,850 Gold. The odds of that will double in 2025 to 60% then increase 10% per year.
- 50% Food scarcity due to climate and economic issues. Hungry people do bad things.
- 30% War in Ukraine escalates to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and the devastating storm that follows would include cyber and economic warfare against the West.
- 20% chance of 50% Implosion of the US dollar as indicated by $200/barrel oil. $4,000 Gold. The odds of that will double in 2025 to 40% then increase 10% per year.
1/1/2024 VS 1/1/2025 Market Prediction
| Symbol | 1/7/2024 | EST 1/1/2025 |
|---|---|---|
| WTI | $73.89 | > $120 |
| GOLD | $2,045.44 | > $2,500 |
| SILVER | $23.18 | > $30 (highly manipulated…should be $50) |
| DJI | 37,466 | 30,000 (-20% …but this is twisted by inflation) |
| US10Y | 4.050 | > 3.00 |
| US30Y | 4.205 | > 2.75 |
| OZ GOLD vs DJI | 18.317 | 14.0 = -25% in real value. |