Today is the first day of the 2024 port strike.
Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas began walking picket lines early Tuesday in a strike over wages and automation that could reignite inflation and cause shortages of goods if it goes on more than a few weeks.
— Associated Press
The contract between the ports and about 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association expired at midnight, and even though progress was reported in talks on Monday, the workers went on strike. The strike affecting 36 ports is the first by the union since 1977.
Analysts are saying 1 week of strike = 4 weeks of backlog and shipping disruptions.
Think of it like this: During normal operations, a port might run at 80% of it’s max capacity. That leaves 20% to deal with the backlog. So in theory 5 days of operation can process 6 days of cargo.
For example, if there’s 5+ days of extra cargo to process, it would take 5 weeks to catch up. In the meantime, anything perishable is probably trash.
The first 6 minutes of the video below provides a good summary of the situation. This was posted before hurricane Helene devastated multiple states. He mentions it as ‘beginning to hit hard’ but now we’re looking at a building supply and equipment vacuum that could last for months.
Don’t Panic
Most of us can probably get by for a month without freaking out or resorting to leaves for hygiene, so we shouldn’t panic. One of the benefits of pre-purchasing things is so we can avoid participating in these stressful market conditions.
We prepare for breakdowns in systems of support.
— Jack Spirko theSurvivalPodcast.com
This is an opportunity
for us to consider our gaps
and work to fill them.
Next time, the disruption could be a war or other countries refusing to trade with us because of devaluation of the dollar.
…the disruptions won’t be measured in weeks at that point.
Just-in-Time Inventory
Just-in-time inventory turnover varies. If the masses don’t totally freak out it should take 3-5 days to draw down existing stock.
Also, things sourced domestically should be fine but bananas or other imported perishables not being available.
First you’ll see depth depleted. Stock will be pulled forward, but there won’t be much behind it.
As shelf holes develop, they will spread things out.
Remember during C19 when there were empty plastic totes filling shelves at Walmart? They do that so the store appears full.
If the strike persists for a while, you may see a lot of tote shelves or the equivalent in other stores.
Food Producers Saw This Coming
There’s also a lot of stock in manufacturer’s reserves. Food producers saw this coming and try to stock up on key ingredients, packaging, etc. They will keep producing until some part of their ingredient list is depleted.
The first thing to go is anything “fancy”. i.e. instead of 5 varieties of mustard there’s one, but core items will still be there unless this drags on for weeks.
That’s why we don’t panic. There are a lot of people who have skin in the game of keeping the wheels turning.
That said, I tend to not trust the news sources that are frequently used to herd the masses. The gov does not want people to freak out and trigger a stampede and mayhem at the stores.
Stock up while things are still mostly normal, but if people start freaking out stay home and wait it out.
If this strike goes on for a long time, bring your silver, gold and ammo to our place so we can trade you for some TP. 💩 😜
This guy discusses the rail traffic disruptions related to the strike.
“Rail backlogs are disrupting export trade between the United States and Mexico and snarling agricultural supply chains as the fall harvest is under way, Reuters reported, citing agriculture groups on Friday.”